July U.S. Economic Data

In July 2025, the U.S. economy showed mixed signals across key indicators. Real GDP rose at a 3.0% annualized pace in Q2, reflecting a rebound from earlier contraction, but the labor market weakened sharply, with only 73,000 jobs created, the slowest monthly pace since 2010. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, though long-term unemployment rose and new job seekers added strain to the labor market. On the consumer side, retail sales increased 0.5%, supported by auto purchases and heavy promotions, but spending growth was uneven and skewed toward higher-income households. Inflationary pressures re-emerged, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.9%, dimming expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Housing data showed resilience, as single-family starts rose 2.8% to roughly 939,000 unitsand total residential construction jumped 5.2%, aided by builder incentives. Meanwhile, consumer confidence edged up to 97.2, though perceptions of job availability fell to their weakest levels in years, underscoring the fragile balance between growth momentum and labor market cooling.